In this short note I would like to share a new view regarding the potentially tragic future of North Korea.
Many analysts consider that North Korea is a stable country. What we mean by stable, is a stable country in terms of institution and of the policy realized. In reality we can observe that North Korea is far from being a stable country. The most important element regarding this unstability is the de facto death of Jang Sung-thaek, the uncle of Kim Jong-eun, who was sudden and done without any complexes. Everybody was surprised, NK elites, westerners based in Pyongyang, foreign analysts (including myself)
Therefore members of North Korea’s upper class believe that the Kim Jong-un regime has no future and expect that it will be in danger of a collapse within 3-4 years. Thus when visiting China, many of them open bank accounts in Chinese and in branches of Swiss banks. Some of them started to sell their collections of old artworks as it is an easy method to obtain cash.
Kim Jong-eun is angry against these persons and therefore led to purges in North Korea. This is a new approach toward North Korea: what is your opinion about that? I’m afraid that the unstability of the regime may bring a dark future not only for North but also for South Korea. A scenario for a quick and arduous collapse of North Korea should be prepared. The ball is partially in the hands of the KINU (Korean Institute for National Unification). However as South Korean institutions have difficulties with North Korean issues, an international support should be provided.