According to NKNews „North Korea’s rocket launch on Sunday appears to have been a success at putting a satellite into orbit, DPRK state broadcaster Chosun Central TV said on Sunday. If true, it would be the second time North Korea has successfully put a satellite into orbit, though neither South Korean nor U.S. agencies have confirmed whether it is in communication with DPRK space authorities. Notably, Japan did not make any attempt to shoot down the rocket, even though reports said it passed over the Okinawa prefecture, national Japanese broadcaster NHK said.”
While proposing meetings between Koreas (on Kim Jong-un new year speech), North Korea is launching a rocket. This aggressive rhetoric appears to come from Kim Yong-chol, the new head of the Inter-Korean KWP Secretary. North Korean media also threatened the same day to launch pre-emptive attacks on the South.
Instead of analyzing the latest nuclear threats of the DPRK, we should be prepared with the starting of a new conflict over the Korean Peninsula. Interested countries must develop preliminary repatriation and reintegration plans for their population based on the Korean Peninsula.
No countries, including China, will roll back sanctions imposed on North Korea. I even consider that also instead of sanctioning North Korean entities, I think that it may be important to also sanction entities which are cooperating with sanctioned North Korean entities. I also believe that a (at least temporary) closing of the Industrial Complex of Kaesong may soften the situation on the Korean Peninsula. South Korea should also stop providing maintenance services to North Korea.
Nevertheless, on a short-term, it will be impossible to create a „peace regime” on the divided Korean Peninsula.