North Korea conducts new intercontinental missile test: Analysis and Opinion

For a while I considered that NK was doing these ballistic attemtps as a marketing issue, in order to sell its technology in spite of the resolution United Nations Security Council Resolution 1874. In my opinion when NK is selling its technology for example to Iran (Shahab missiles), they sell and transport it with the agreement of Chinese authorities as these weapons need to reach their target via China.

Therefore, I consider that Chinese authorities are highly responsible of the current situation. I consider that Chinese authorities underestimate Kim Jong-un and his capabilities. From the rational point of view, Kim Jong-un didn’t need to to do these attempts in order to jeopardize the Korean Peninsula, however I consider that the US are currently doing some operations against NK which are classified, and therefore Kim Jong-un show his displeasure realizing these launches. Please also consider that these launches represent a danger for Kim Jong-un as he has no insurance that they will succeed. Furthermore, it also represents a cost (several millions of USD) which cannot be neglected. Basically, I consider Kim Jong-un as a real danger for the Korean Peninsula.

Sanctions are not working, as in order to succeed we need the cooperation of Chinese authorities.

As I used to say in the past. Chinese authorities are accepting the irregularities of the NK government like in the following examples. During the sale of Shahab missiles, NK authorities sent Nodong-1 missiles which are exactly the same to Iranian ones. For these purposes, NK missiles must transit through the Chinese territory or its airspace, which are infractions to Resolution 1874. The second example consist of the acceptance of the trade of goods which are banned under the resolution 1874. In this case, customs are not efficient and should be also punished. Thirdly, China’s gasoline exports to North Korea fell in June from a year earlier, but were up strongly from the previous month, which theoretically is impossible, as the export of fuel is severely controlled in accordance t Resolution 1874. Therefore, additional sanctions should be applied toward entities or states which are not dealing correctly with the Resolution 1874. Some foreign companies based in Pyongyang should also be banned from being there. Some sectors should also be protected such as medicine, basic food exported to NK, as they are important for the NK society.

I also consider that there are a plenty of NK citizens based abroad and dignitaries of the NK leadership who should be put on trial. I would look for those responsible of the 3 revolutions movements who were probably involved in some purges (maybe Ji Jae-ryong from the NK embassy in Pyongyang?). Arresting Kim Yong-nam is also a solution. In France, we judged old people responisble for murders committed during the WW2, such as Paul Touvier or Klaus Barbie. Why not arresting some NK diplomats while they are abroad. Kim Yong-nam is supposed to go to Iran within the next days, and it’s known that he was  (he’s now in his 80’s) coresponsible for the trade of some NK weapons abroad. The purpose is to destabilize the NK leadership.

NK diplomats may be also expelled, it may also destabilize NK but also lead to new provocations. Switzerland may have a clue role by expelling NK diplomats and citizens based over there and working for the North Korean regime. Expelling North Korean students who are abroad or in the US (people from the Chonggryon minority) is also a solution. However I also consider that promising them that they will continue their cursue after the collapse of the Kim Jong-un regime, or providing them a financial conpensation, may be also a light in the tunnel.

The South Korea’s Moon Jae-in offers olive branch at inauguration of the National Assembly is only done in order to not destabilize the South Korean society. The new South Korean administration is fully conscious of the dangers of the Kim Jong-un regime. However, in order to avoid any escalations of North Korean threats, and in order to avoid an internal social destabilization, Moon has no other choices than proposing to North Korea some agreements, or to visit Pyongyang. Of course North Korean authorities will gently decline it. They recently decline the call of the South Korean red cross, and probably any further cooperation regarding the future Olympic Games in Pyeongchang will also not continue.

Advertisements

Laisser une réponse

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s